The media constantly are telling Americans there’s a huge wave of Democrat election victories coming in 2018.
They are expected to take back the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate, and a whole bunch of statehouse majorities.
To talk-radio host Rush Limbaugh, however, the actual numbers don’t support the headlines.
Monday, he explained, a new poll, from NBC and the Wall Street Journal, suggests that the trend just doesn’t include a Democrat takeover.
“We have a bunch of polling data here that shows the conventional wisdom that the Democrats are gonna win everything in November is not adding up,” he said.
He said it’s way too early for polls to be reflecting accurately anyway, but the polling goes on because there are those who use it “to shape opinion rather than reflect it.”
“So this from the NBC/Wall Street Journal. This poll, it says, ‘casts a more realistic light on Democrats’ chances. There is little doubt that Trump hatred is giving the Democrats an edge in voter intensity. But the numbers that would signal a blue wave just aren’t there,’ in this NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. ‘And against all odds, the president’s approval numbers are as high now as they have been at any time since he was inaugurated.’”
He pointed out Rasmussen has the president up by another point, to a 51 percent approval.
“By the measurements the Drive-By Media, the Democrats themselves use, the evidence of a … wave just isn’t there yet.”
The Democrats, however, don’t know it, he said.
“If you watch the news, read the news, whatever you do to get the news, when they talk about 2018, it’s over. The Democrats are gonna win and win big, they’re already planning impeachment. You know it. You’ve been treated to it for months now.”
He said the numbers right now are that the Democrats have a 7-point advantage in congressional preference, 47-to-40.
But in March it was a 10-point edge. And at the beginning of the year it was about 15 points, he said.
He says the poll does note a Democrat advantage in enthusiasm, but he doubts that will remain the same from now until the November elections.
“The intensity is also falling. The intensity is way down on the Democrat side. There is a psychological reason for this, and that is that the kind of intensity that the Democrats have been feeling, this deep, emotional rage is simply physiologically and emotionally not sustainable. They can’t hold on to it for that long. It’s already starting to peter out.”
He commented, “I’ll tell you, when I hear conventional wisdom of a blue wave and the Democrats running away with it and when everybody in the media is touting it, I automatically reject it simply because everybody else thinks it. Groupthink? Stay away from it if you can. Groupthink is the death of your brain.”
Typically, out-of-power parties gain some seats in the midterm elections. Barack Obama lost 60 seats in 2010.
Limbaugh also noted an ABC-Washington Post poll where 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer the Democrat candidate to 43 percent for the GOP.
“Now, we’re really near the margin of error. The four-point margin compares with a 12-point advantage Democrats had in January and among a broader group of voting age adults the Democrats’ margin is 10 points, 50-40,” he said.
“The edge has narrowed since January, a signal to party leaders and strategists that they could be premature in anticipating a huge wave of victories in November. And again, [the ABC] poll talks about voter passion, which side is more likely to turn up at the voting booth? In this poll, the answer isn’t good for Democrats. Remember, in the NBC poll just moments ago, they had a 66 to 49 percent lead in high motivated intensity to show up. The Washington Post/ABC poll finds parity in stated voting intentions. Among registered voters, 68 percent of both Republican and-Democrat leaning registered voters say they are certain they’ll vote.”